Mortgage Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Treasuries and mortgage markets opened better this morning on weaker stock indexes pointing to a weak open at 9:30. Trading this week will be on low volume with Passover and Holy Week. Already this morning there has been an increase in volatility; the 10 yr note traded +10/32 at 9:00 then fell to -5/32 and immediately bounced back to unchanged; mortgage prices at 8:59 this morning +5/32, at 9:07 -1/32, at 9:15 -4/32 (.12 bp). This week will likely be somewhat volatile but by the end of the week not much changed; many investors and traders will be leaving by mid-week.
S&P roiled markets early this morning; saying it has downgraded US debt to negative. The DJIA opened -170 points at 9:30, the bond and mortgage markets were quite volatile as investors were somewhat shocked on the announcement. Treasuries erased an earlier advance, the dollar pared gains versus the euro and gold rallied. S&P affirmed reduced the long-term U.S. debt rating to negative from stable, while affirming its AAA long-term and A-1+ short-term sovereign credit ratings. S&P said that more than two years after the beginning of the recent crisis, U.S. policymakers have not agreed on a strategy to reverse recent fiscal deterioration or address longer-term fiscal pressures. While a shock, it shouldn't have been with our politicians in Washington twinking around with budget cuts that were nothing; they patted themselves on their collective backs and announced a $38B cut in spending, but the actual real cut amounted to just $318 mil. All of the cuts were just not funding what had been approved previously. As long as our "leaders" are unwilling to make serious steps to cut spending and increase revenues (taxes) the US debt rating will continue to be down-graded, and US interest rates will increase.
Listening and watching the reaction from guests on CNBC one would think markets were slapped in the face with the down-grade and are taking offense. We and others have warned for over two years that US debt ratings were going to be lowered. Somehow most in the US believe the US is immune to debt ratings declines; time to wake up folks, the US if corporate accounting were to be applied, is bankrupt. 50% of all Americans pay no federal income tax while politicians don't have the stones to do what everyone knows has to be done. We do not have leaders, we have politicians that above all want to keep their jobs.
This week has little data except for the housing sector; March starts and permits, March existing home sales as well as this morning's NAHB housing market index and Thursday's FHFA housing price index. The only non-housing data comes on Thursday with weekly jobless claims and the April Philadelphia Fed business index. The markets will close early on Thursday and be closed Friday for Good Friday.
This Week's Economic Calendar:
Today;
10:00 am April NAHB housing market index (17 was expected, as reported 16)
Tuesday;
8:30 am March housing starts and permits (starts +7.8%; permits +3.9%)
Wednesday;
7:00 am MBA weekly mortgage applications
10:00 am March existing home sales (+2.5%)
Thursday;
8:30 am weekly jobless claims (-22K back to 390K; con't claims 3.650 mil frm 3.680 mil)
10:00 am April Philadelphia Fed business index (32.9 frm 43.4 in March)
Mar leading economic indicators (+0.2%)
FHFA Feb housing price index (N/A)
Friday;
Markets closed
Fed speak; at 12:30 Dallas Fed's Fisher speaking on the economic outlook. Likely he will continue the Fed's outlook, moderate growth with no inflation concerns but that the Fed will continue to monitor events closely. The Fed will complete the $600B QE 2 by the end of June. His comments won't likely present anything new.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Friday, April 15, 2011
Mortgage Loan Process
This section will give you a good Idea of the mortgage loan process and the time frame involved. The knowledge will help you feel more comfortable with your lender as you go through the loan process and will also help you spot any red flags along the way if they should appear.
The type of loan you are applying for will determine the length of time required for the loan process in completing your loan. Different loan types require different documentation.
Here is the mortgage loan process:
Mortgage Application
The mortgage application process is where you fill out the application, sign various forms that authorize the lender to process your loan, and deliver your documentation requirements. (Bank statements; pay stubs, W2s, Tax Returns, etc…). You should understand that the next process cannot begin until these documents are completed and or received.
Mortgage Processing
When all of your documentation is received it then goes to a processor who verifies and validates all of the information to be true and correct. Verification requests may be sent to your employers, landlord and lending institutions. This is done by fax or email when possible. It is usually during this time frame that the appraisal and the title policy are ordered.
When all the information is collected the processor then verifies that basic lender loan requirements have been met. The file is then packaged in a manner the lender specifies. The completed package (including the appraisal and title report) is then sent to the underwriting department.
The processing of your loan usually takes about one to two weeks but it can often be delayed when third parties do not respond to the validation requests or appraisals are delayed. If your loan qualifies for DU (Desk top Underwriting) or Loan Prospector, these are computer automated systems, the documentation requirements are often cut in half and the process can be completed in three to five days depending on the volume of loans the processor has.
Mortgage Underwriting
The underwriter reviews your loan package to make sure it conforms to all the guidelines required for that loan product. They also review the appraisal and title report and may do additional validation of employment, mortgage payments, and credit. And, anything else they feel is necessary to document your loan. They have ultimate power and decision authority over the approval of your loan. The time required to do this is driven by the volume in the market. If the market is flooded I have seen it take two weeks but under normal conditions it only takes three to five business days.
Automated Mortgage Underwriting
Most lenders today use Automated Underwriting (by computer). The advantage is less documentation and it speeds up the process. The computer actually makes the approval decision and the underwriter only reviews the supporting documentation and the appraisal. However, if any documentation is missing, inaccurate, or does not agree with the 1003 (application), the loan will be kicked out of this system until documentation requirements are met or the loan is turned down or resubmitted. This can cause delays but they are usually resolved quickly. Automated Underwriting can be completed in just a matter of hours. But, ..If the market is flooded expect it to take longer.
Conditions To Close
When the underwriter is done reviewing your loan she will send "conditions to close" to your loan officer. These are normally just requirements for further documentation to support your file. When these needs have been satisfied the underwriter will give a final approval and "clear to close".
Clear To Close
When the loan officer gets the clear to close, he then schedules and coordinates with all the parties the time and location to sign the final documents to close the loan. This normally only takes an hour or so to schedule.
Draw Documents
When everything is scheduled the lender then draws the document package and sends it to the closing company. This can be done by overnight delivery or electronically. It can take one to two days. You meet, sign the papers.
Funding
Next is the funding of your loan. This usually takes about two to three days after you sign your closing documents, since the originals need to be sent overnight to the lender. Once received and revewed to make sure there are no missing signatures or to make sure you signed your name as it appeared on the loan application. The lender will fund your loan. This simply means they have send out the funds to the closing agent (Escrow Company). This is done by wire and usually the cut off time to send a wire out is between 10am and 11am since the wire goes to the Federal Government then they send it to the escrow company.
Recording
Once the escrow company receives the wire they send notification to the county recorder’s office. Once the notifications has been received and recorded with usually takes 24 hours from the time of funding.
Now you receive your keys!
This section will give you a good Idea of the mortgage loan process and the time frame involved. The knowledge will help you feel more comfortable with your lender as you go through the loan process and will also help you spot any red flags along the way if they should appear.
The type of loan you are applying for will determine the length of time required for the loan process in completing your loan. Different loan types require different documentation.
Here is the mortgage loan process:
Mortgage Application
The mortgage application process is where you fill out the application, sign various forms that authorize the lender to process your loan, and deliver your documentation requirements. (Bank statements; pay stubs, W2s, Tax Returns, etc…). You should understand that the next process cannot begin until these documents are completed and or received.
Mortgage Processing
When all of your documentation is received it then goes to a processor who verifies and validates all of the information to be true and correct. Verification requests may be sent to your employers, landlord and lending institutions. This is done by fax or email when possible. It is usually during this time frame that the appraisal and the title policy are ordered.
When all the information is collected the processor then verifies that basic lender loan requirements have been met. The file is then packaged in a manner the lender specifies. The completed package (including the appraisal and title report) is then sent to the underwriting department.
The processing of your loan usually takes about one to two weeks but it can often be delayed when third parties do not respond to the validation requests or appraisals are delayed. If your loan qualifies for DU (Desk top Underwriting) or Loan Prospector, these are computer automated systems, the documentation requirements are often cut in half and the process can be completed in three to five days depending on the volume of loans the processor has.
Mortgage Underwriting
The underwriter reviews your loan package to make sure it conforms to all the guidelines required for that loan product. They also review the appraisal and title report and may do additional validation of employment, mortgage payments, and credit. And, anything else they feel is necessary to document your loan. They have ultimate power and decision authority over the approval of your loan. The time required to do this is driven by the volume in the market. If the market is flooded I have seen it take two weeks but under normal conditions it only takes three to five business days.
Automated Mortgage Underwriting
Most lenders today use Automated Underwriting (by computer). The advantage is less documentation and it speeds up the process. The computer actually makes the approval decision and the underwriter only reviews the supporting documentation and the appraisal. However, if any documentation is missing, inaccurate, or does not agree with the 1003 (application), the loan will be kicked out of this system until documentation requirements are met or the loan is turned down or resubmitted. This can cause delays but they are usually resolved quickly. Automated Underwriting can be completed in just a matter of hours. But, ..If the market is flooded expect it to take longer.
Conditions To Close
When the underwriter is done reviewing your loan she will send "conditions to close" to your loan officer. These are normally just requirements for further documentation to support your file. When these needs have been satisfied the underwriter will give a final approval and "clear to close".
Clear To Close
When the loan officer gets the clear to close, he then schedules and coordinates with all the parties the time and location to sign the final documents to close the loan. This normally only takes an hour or so to schedule.
Draw Documents
When everything is scheduled the lender then draws the document package and sends it to the closing company. This can be done by overnight delivery or electronically. It can take one to two days. You meet, sign the papers.
Funding
Next is the funding of your loan. This usually takes about two to three days after you sign your closing documents, since the originals need to be sent overnight to the lender. Once received and revewed to make sure there are no missing signatures or to make sure you signed your name as it appeared on the loan application. The lender will fund your loan. This simply means they have send out the funds to the closing agent (Escrow Company). This is done by wire and usually the cut off time to send a wire out is between 10am and 11am since the wire goes to the Federal Government then they send it to the escrow company.
Recording
Once the escrow company receives the wire they send notification to the county recorder’s office. Once the notifications has been received and recorded with usually takes 24 hours from the time of funding.
Now you receive your keys!
Mortgage Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Friday, April 15, 2011
The bond and mortgage markets continue to swing back and forth within a narrow range, yesterday the 10 yr note rate increased 4 basis points, this morning at 8:45 its yield down 4 bp. Mortgage prices fell yesterday 7/32 (.22 bp), this morning the price up 10/32 (.31 bp) at 8:45.
At 8:30 March consumer price index increased 0.5% in line with estimates, the core (ex food and energy) up 0.1% slightly less than 0.2% expected. Yr/yr overall CPI +2.7%, the core yr/yr +1.2%. Inflation concerns still the great debate with the Fed saying don't worry be happy while markets are worrying and are not happy. Who wins? The Fed isn't concerned that inflation in commodity prices will pass through to consumer prices, markets don't like fading the Fed on such a key issue but evidence is increasing that businesses are beginning to pass price increases down the chain. Not yet a major issue but one that bears watching. Bernanke's key word "transitory" describing inflation of commodity prices is keeping rates from moving higher but equally keeping rates from declining.
There is so much focus on inflation with global inflation increasing in Europe, China, India, Brazil, Russia and emerging markets that markets completely ignored the NY Empire State manufacturing data also out at 8:30 this morning. Normally the NY report gets attention even though it is a a small regional series, this morning it was as if it didn't exist. The overall index was expected to have declined to 15.0 frm 17.5 in March, as reported it jumped to 21.7. The sub-components also stronger; new orders index 22.34 frm 5.81, prices pd 57.69 frm 53.25 and employment at 23.08 frm 9.09. On another day those improvements would have pressured rates and improved stock indexes; today there was no interest in it.
While we hold our outlook that interest rates will slowly rise by the end of the yr, the near term is looking a little better; that said as long as the 10 yr continues to be comfortable in its near term narrow 10 bp range (3.40% to 3.50%) showing no tipping of the balance; mortgage rates also stuck in their ranges and will remain there until the 10 yr breaks in either direction.
Holding rates steady is the increasing realization that Q1 economic growth will be far less than what markets were believing just two weeks ago. More economists and some Fed officials are cutting Q1 GDP estimates to 2.0% growth from 3.55 to 4.0% that had been prevalent. Looks more and more like the unfettered optimism that was the consensus just a week ago has now been rattled especially when we have Fed district Presidents out there down-playing economic growth; a key reason that inflation concerns may be waning. The Fed's Plosser (Philly Fed) out this morning saying he isn't worried about inflation for at least another year; likely he sees economic weakness coming-----we agree but with rates increasing globally the US won't be able to easily fund the deficits at low rates.
At 9:15 March industrial production was expected up 0.5%, it increased 0.8% and factory utilization increased to 77.4% (the highest since August 2008) frm 76.9% in Feb. Both stronger than thought but there was no reaction to the data in the bond and mortgage markets. The stock indexes however have improved; early on the indexes were lower, at 9:20 the DJIA up 10 points and the S&P about unchanged (+1.5 points).
At 9:30 the DJIA opened +26, the 10 yr +19/32 at 3.43% -6 bp and mortgage prices +14/32 (.44 bp).
The final data point today; at 9:55 the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index, expected at 66.0 frm 67.5, was 69.6, the current conditions index 82.7 frm 82.5, 12 month out expectations 75 frm 60; the 12 month inflation index was unchanged at 4.6. The rate markets got a minor boost on the data, so too the stock market-----a little for everyone in the data.
A couple of Fed speakers today; at 10:00 Alt Fed's Evans, at 1:30 KC Fed Pres Hoenig, Hoenig is the Fed's maverick wanting no QE and the Fed to begin thinking about tightening.
Listening and watching analysts, economists and politicians the take away is at the end of the day uncertainty is how most end their various forecasts. Not unusual to couch forecasts but recently the couching has taken on a higher level. Economic growth but at what pace? China, India, Russia, Germany, and emerging markets expanding at rapid rates; the US dragging along with more now revising growth lower than what had been though a couple of weeks ago. The bond and mortgage markets holding steady with little changes in interest rates over the past three weeks; we will continue our conservative approach to trading as long as our favorite 10 yr note sticks in its 10 bp range---no long positions, no shorting either----sometimes its better to just watch.
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Friday, April 15, 2011
The bond and mortgage markets continue to swing back and forth within a narrow range, yesterday the 10 yr note rate increased 4 basis points, this morning at 8:45 its yield down 4 bp. Mortgage prices fell yesterday 7/32 (.22 bp), this morning the price up 10/32 (.31 bp) at 8:45.
At 8:30 March consumer price index increased 0.5% in line with estimates, the core (ex food and energy) up 0.1% slightly less than 0.2% expected. Yr/yr overall CPI +2.7%, the core yr/yr +1.2%. Inflation concerns still the great debate with the Fed saying don't worry be happy while markets are worrying and are not happy. Who wins? The Fed isn't concerned that inflation in commodity prices will pass through to consumer prices, markets don't like fading the Fed on such a key issue but evidence is increasing that businesses are beginning to pass price increases down the chain. Not yet a major issue but one that bears watching. Bernanke's key word "transitory" describing inflation of commodity prices is keeping rates from moving higher but equally keeping rates from declining.
There is so much focus on inflation with global inflation increasing in Europe, China, India, Brazil, Russia and emerging markets that markets completely ignored the NY Empire State manufacturing data also out at 8:30 this morning. Normally the NY report gets attention even though it is a a small regional series, this morning it was as if it didn't exist. The overall index was expected to have declined to 15.0 frm 17.5 in March, as reported it jumped to 21.7. The sub-components also stronger; new orders index 22.34 frm 5.81, prices pd 57.69 frm 53.25 and employment at 23.08 frm 9.09. On another day those improvements would have pressured rates and improved stock indexes; today there was no interest in it.
While we hold our outlook that interest rates will slowly rise by the end of the yr, the near term is looking a little better; that said as long as the 10 yr continues to be comfortable in its near term narrow 10 bp range (3.40% to 3.50%) showing no tipping of the balance; mortgage rates also stuck in their ranges and will remain there until the 10 yr breaks in either direction.
Holding rates steady is the increasing realization that Q1 economic growth will be far less than what markets were believing just two weeks ago. More economists and some Fed officials are cutting Q1 GDP estimates to 2.0% growth from 3.55 to 4.0% that had been prevalent. Looks more and more like the unfettered optimism that was the consensus just a week ago has now been rattled especially when we have Fed district Presidents out there down-playing economic growth; a key reason that inflation concerns may be waning. The Fed's Plosser (Philly Fed) out this morning saying he isn't worried about inflation for at least another year; likely he sees economic weakness coming-----we agree but with rates increasing globally the US won't be able to easily fund the deficits at low rates.
At 9:15 March industrial production was expected up 0.5%, it increased 0.8% and factory utilization increased to 77.4% (the highest since August 2008) frm 76.9% in Feb. Both stronger than thought but there was no reaction to the data in the bond and mortgage markets. The stock indexes however have improved; early on the indexes were lower, at 9:20 the DJIA up 10 points and the S&P about unchanged (+1.5 points).
At 9:30 the DJIA opened +26, the 10 yr +19/32 at 3.43% -6 bp and mortgage prices +14/32 (.44 bp).
The final data point today; at 9:55 the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index, expected at 66.0 frm 67.5, was 69.6, the current conditions index 82.7 frm 82.5, 12 month out expectations 75 frm 60; the 12 month inflation index was unchanged at 4.6. The rate markets got a minor boost on the data, so too the stock market-----a little for everyone in the data.
A couple of Fed speakers today; at 10:00 Alt Fed's Evans, at 1:30 KC Fed Pres Hoenig, Hoenig is the Fed's maverick wanting no QE and the Fed to begin thinking about tightening.
Listening and watching analysts, economists and politicians the take away is at the end of the day uncertainty is how most end their various forecasts. Not unusual to couch forecasts but recently the couching has taken on a higher level. Economic growth but at what pace? China, India, Russia, Germany, and emerging markets expanding at rapid rates; the US dragging along with more now revising growth lower than what had been though a couple of weeks ago. The bond and mortgage markets holding steady with little changes in interest rates over the past three weeks; we will continue our conservative approach to trading as long as our favorite 10 yr note sticks in its 10 bp range---no long positions, no shorting either----sometimes its better to just watch.
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